Who Thinks We Don’t Need Anymore Capacity

Is UK PLC finally about to make some positive and dramatic decisions about runway capacity in London? Rumour has it that those in power have finally realised that both aviation and major infrastructure projects create economic growth, it may have taken decades but finally light at the end of the tunnel or at least the landing lights on some new runway capacity could be approved this year.

However exciting the news or at least the intent, and there will be much discussion, lobbying, appeals and delay tactics adopted by those not in favour of such development we thought we would share with you just two charts that show how compelling the need for those runways actually is for UK PLC.

At London Heathrow the busiest day for capacity in 2024 was the 4th September when some 299,706 seats were available for sale spread across 1,398 flights. The chart below shows the number of scheduled flights arriving and departing at London Heathrow on the 4th September and allowing for some operational restrictions at both the beginning and end of the day it’s clear that there is no room for additional movements throughout most of the day. That lack of available capacity is now restricting growth at the airport and is behind the believe that the airport cannot grow its traffic further in the coming years without that additional runaway.

Chart 1 – London Heathrow, Scheduled Arrivals & Departures, 4th September 2024
Source: OAG Schedules Analyser

Similarly at London Gatwick where the busiest day was the 1st September the airport had some 173,359 seats spread across 885 flights which is a pretty incredible number given the current single runway operation. With such a large number of flights then the chart below with the movements per hour at Gatwick isn’t really a surprise, if anything it shows just how hard the airport works to maximise it’s runway and terminals.

Chart 2 – London Gatwick, Scheduled Arrivals & Departures, 1st September 2024
Source: OAG Schedules Analyser

With both airports having to observe restrictions on movements per hour and indeed even within 15 minute time intervals it is very clear that without additional runway capacity neither can fully achieve the economic benefit that they could deliver in the coming years, especially to an economy that is so service based. Whatever announcements and sound bites emerge in the next few days it really is time to recognise that the inn of London capacity needs more room!

-John Grant